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While Australia has revealed its timeline for closing its Uruzgan base and bringing home its troops, the future of Afghanistan itself is far less assured, writes Michael Brissenden.
As the Defence Minister says, it's the "easiest thing in the world to get in - hardest thing in the world to get out".
After more than a decade of military engagement, Australia is beginning the drawdown of troops from Afghanistan.
It is a war that the even Defence Minister Stephen Smith admits has been going on far too long - and a war not helped by what he describes as the "distraction" of the conflict in Iraq.
By the end of the year, 1,000 of Australia's 1,650 troops will be home and the Australian base in Uruzgan will be closed.
Unlike Iraq, Afghanistan was not initially an unpopular commitment although it has become more so the longer it has gone on.
There is a realisation from Washington to Canberra and throughout the ISAF forces that with every casualty and every death, public sentiment turns further.
As Mr Smith says, when the history of Afghanistan is written, today's announcement will be seen as an important moment.
The withdrawal will be a gradual scale-back throughout the rest of this year. The base will be dismantled and parts of it handed over the Afghan military. Australian military equipment will be sent home.
Australia's presence in Afghanistan dates back to 2001 when three special forces squadrons were deployed.
Read a full timeline of Australia's involvement here...
But like all ISAF contributors, Australia is aware that the future security of Afghanistan is far from secured.
While pockets of the country are certainly far more secure than they have been, there is real concern about the Taliban quickly filling the security vacuum left once troops withdraw.
Certainly not everyone is quite as confident as the official military planners or the Afghan officials, who say they believe the Afghan national forces are now capable of maintaining security.
Mr Smith concedes that Afghanistan will remain difficult and will continue to remain dangerous and variable in terms of security.
"On January 1, 2015, Afghanistan may not be a perfect society but the international community has made it clear that it wants to play a continuing role to help ensure that security continues to improve," he said.
So as "historic" and "significant" as this may be, it almost certainly won't be the end of Australia's commitment to Afghanistan.
We have pledged to leave Special Forces in the country to contribute to training and counter terrorism operations.
Precisely how they will work is yet to be determined by a new international mandate, but it is clear that if required, Australian Special Forces will remain beyond the transition date of 2015.
The last rotation of regular Australian troops will begin in May or June this year.
Michael Brissenden is the ABC's national defence correspondent. View his full profile here.
Topics: defence-and-national-security, unrest-conflict-and-war, federal-government, government-and-politics, army, defence-forces
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