Tuesday, September 10, 2013

The seats that hang in the balance - Sydney Morning Herald


Rob Mitchell faces a tough fight to hold onto the Victorian seat of McEwen.

Rob Mitchell faces a tough fight to hold onto the Victorian seat of McEwen.




The election is over but candidates in eight seats are still waiting on results from the Australian Electoral Commission, with, one imagines, well-chewed fingernails, four days after Tony Abbott was declared Prime Minister-elect.


The highest profile of these "too close to call" contests has been the electorate of Indi, in which Liberal Party MP Sophie Mirabella is closely trailing the popular independent Cathy McGowan by 775 votes.


Liberal frontbencher Sophie Mirabella is trailing her country Victorian seat of Indi.

Liberal frontbencher Sophie Mirabella is trailing her country Victorian seat of Indi. Photo: John Russell



Thousands of people have taken to social media to cheer on Ms McGowan, who has bucked the trend towards the Coalition after mounting a strong grassroots campaign.


Another high-profile race has been for the Queensland seat of Fairfax, where the Palmer United Party's founder and leader, Clive Palmer, is tantalisingly close to winning a seat in the House of Representatives.


Mr Palmer leads his LNP opponent Ted O'Brien by a margin of 1391 votes, but the mining magnate believes he will lose on postal votes and has claimed the entire voting system is corrupt.


But these two colourful contests are down the scale in terms of closest races in the country.


The tightest contest in Australia is for the NSW seat of Barton, which was once considered a safe Labor seat held by retired former attorney-general Robert McClelland. At 1.14 pm on Wednesday, the Liberal candidate Nickolas Varvaris was leading Labor's Steve McMahon by just 27 votes.


Other seats hanging in the balance include the famous NSW bellwether, Eden-Monaro (Liberals ahead by 470 votes); Capricornia in Queensland (ALP ahead by 156 votes); Dobell on the NSW central coast (Liberals ahead by 626 votes); and McEwen in Victoria (Liberals ahead by 375 votes).


McEwen, which covers much of the area burned by the 2009 Victorian bushfires, has a history of tight contests.


When vote counting finished after the 2007 election, Labor's Rob Mitchell and then Liberal member Fran Bailey could not be separated. In the end, a court judged Ms Bailey the winner by a margin of just 27 votes.


This election, Mr Mitchell could be unlucky again.


The AEC takes a conservative view, with some it considers too close to call such as Reid (likely won by Liberals) and Parramatta (likely won by Labor) have been conceded by the respective parties.


The final House of Representative counts are usually not finished until nearly a month after polling date, while the Senate result is usually decided in the third or fourth weeks after the election, an AEC spokesman said.


SEATS IN THE BALANCE


Barton, NSW, held by ALP, Liberal Party is leading (at 1.14 pm on Wednesday 11/9) by a margin of 27 votes. A swing of 6.88 per cent towards Libs. Turnout: 78.14% Liberal candidate is Nickolas Varvaris; Labor candidate Steve McMahon.


Capricornia, QLD, held by ALP, ALP is leading (at 1.14 pm on Wednesday 11/9) by a margin of 156 votes. A swing of 3.57 per cent towards Libs. Turnout: 79.94%. Liberal candidate is Michelle Landry; Labor candidate Peter Freeleagus.


McEwen, Victoria, held by ALP, Liberal Party is leading (at 1.14 pm on Wednesday 11/9) by a margin of 375 votes. A swing of 9.42 per cent towards Libs. Turnout: 78.25%. Liberal candidate is Donna Petrovich; Labor candidate Rob Mitchell.


Eden-Monaro, NSW, held by ALP, Liberal Party is leading (at 1.14 pm on Wednesday 11/9) by a margin of 470 votes. A swing of 4.55 per cent towards Libs. Turnout: 81.39%. Liberal candidate is Peter Hendy; Labor candidate Mike Kelly.


Dobell, NSW, held by ALP, Liberal Party is leading (at 1.14 pm on Wednesday 11/9) by a margin of 626 votes. A swing of 5.55 per cent towards Libs. Turnout: 80.92%. Liberal candidate is Karen McNamara; Labor candidate Emma McBride.


Indi, VIC, held by Liberal Party, Independent is leading (at 12.24 pm on Wednesday 11/9) by a margin of 775 votes. Turnout: 80.10%. Liberal candidate is Sophie Mirabella; Independent candidate Cathy McGowan.


Petrie, QLD, held by ALP, LNP is leading (at 1.14 pm on Wednesday 11/9) by a margin of 746 votes. A swing of 3.06 per cent towards LNP. Turnout: 76.46%. LNPcandidate is Luke Howarth; Labor candidate Yvette D'Ath.


Fairfax, QLD, held by LNP, Palmer United Party is leading (at 1.14 pm on Wednesday 11/9) by a margin of 1391 votes. Turnout: 78.03%. LNP candidate is Ted O'Brien; PUP candidate is Clive Palmer.



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