Does a leadership spill 'clear the air'? - ABC Online

Updated March 26, 2013 10:22:51

Simon Crean became the Federal Government's 'air freshener' last Thursday.

"We needed clear air," he said. "We needed to bring these matters to a head."

But will the leadership spill give Labor the clear air it needs to sell its message? Or will the subsequent resignations of competent, senior ministers contribute to its demise?

"There are not many cases where a public fight over leadership entrenches a government," says adjunct professor John Nethercote from the Australian Catholic University.

"Leadership spills (or major ministerial reshuffles) are usually symbols of disillusion and disarray, or a government losing control of itself."

Political analysts say the feud between Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard has things in common with the factional divide between John Gorton and William McMahon in the 1960s and 70s, after the disappearance of Harold Holt.

"The air was far from clear after McMahon took over as prime minister from Gorton," says Australian National University professor John Wanna.

Recent leadership spills and changes
March 2013	Julia Gillard elected unopposed after Simon Crean calls for a spill.
Feb 2012	Julia Gillard remains PM after defeating Kevin Rudd
Jun 2010	Kevin Rudd loses Labor leadership to Julia Gillard.
Dec 2009	Tony Abbott defeats Malcolm Turnbull and becomes Liberal leader.
Sep 2008	Malcolm Turnbull defeats Brendan Nelson as Liberal leader.
Nov 2007	Brendan Nelson defeats Malcolm Turnbull to become Liberal leader after John Howard's election loss.
Dec 2006	Kevin Rudd defeats Kim Beazley to become Labor leader.
Jan 2005	Mark Latham resigns and Kim Beazley becomes Labor leader for the second time.
Dec 2003	Simon Crean resigns and Mark Latham beats Kim Beazley to become Labor leader.
Jun 2003	Simon Crean holds off Labor leadership challenge from Kim Beazley.
Nov 2001	Simon Crean becomes Labor leader after Kim Beazley's election loss.
Mar 1996	Kim Beazley becomes Labor leader after Paul Keating's election loss.
Jan 1995	John Howard becomes Liberal leader after Alexander Downer resigns.

"It was quite divisive and there was a long period of destabilisation before and after. The Coalition was ultimately defeated [after 23 years of conservative rule] by [Gough] Whitlam in 1972.

"The big difference with Rudd is the method of undermining. Normally challengers don't come back again and again, certainly not in an election year.

"So this sort of situation isn't good for a government. Disunity is death."

There have been exceptions: Paul Keating won an "unwinnable" election after wresting the prime ministership from Bob Hawke.

But successful spills are more common in Opposition.

Leaders such as Gough Whitlam and Tony Abbott took control of their parties after winning tight partyroom ballots.

Loss of talent

Last Thursday's aborted leadership coup claimed four senior ministers - and four other office holders - in 24 hours. Parallels are hard to find.

A plane crash in Canberra killed three ministers in 1940 and contributed to the demise of the Menzies government, while nearly 100 years ago several ministers quit the government of Billy Hughes over a disagreement about conscription. It led to the downfall of Labor.

"When you lose senior ministers, you lose experience and talent," says Nick Economou, a senior politics lecturer at Monash University.

"It can make it harder to sell the message."

He says Prime Minister Julia Gillard will continue to struggle to get clear air.

"The conditions that have been causing all this leadership speculation [in the Labor Party] are still in place," he said.

"Julia Gillard is very unpopular and has been undermined by poor opinion polls and policy failings, not just Kevin Rudd.

"So while at first blush this [leadership spill and reshuffle] looks like an improvement in Ms Gillard's position, it does open up the possibility of a third candidate.

"That's something the Caucus may have to embrace when the next set of opinion polls come out showing that Labor's primary vote is dipping into the 20s."

Labor's future

Fifty-eight MPs have served as ministers or parliamentary secretaries since Labor was elected in 2007.

There have been five reshuffles under Julia Gillard this term, and there are now 10 former cabinet ministers on the backbench.

"While purpose has driven us on, unity has eluded us," Ms Gillard said.

But even if Labor can become unified, analysts say the party will struggle to win the September election.

"It looks like it doesn't matter what they do, things always go wrong," Professor Wanna said.

"It looks like a terminal decline, a downward spiral. You could see it a little bit with Whitlam, Keating and Howard.

"Tony Abbott would probably have to do something really stupid or unpopular [to lose the election] and that doesn't look likely."

If Julia Gillard just makes it through to September, she will have made history.

"She will be the first prime minister to have served a full term in minority government," says Adjunct Professor John Nethercote.

That's a feat few commentators thought was possible.

Topics: federal-elections, federal-government, federal-parliament, alp, australia

First posted March 26, 2013 10:16:42