'Spring Street strategists are starting to wonder: could an Abbott victory help or hinder the Baillieu government?' Photo: Penny Stephens
TED Baillieu and Tony Abbott are different in many ways, but they've always found common ground in the water. Both enjoy swimming. Both bravely wear Speedos. And if last year's Pier to Pub race was any indication, both get competitive in the ocean.
These similarities also underpin a pretty good working relationship, despite contrasting ideologies (Abbott is a social conservative; Baillieu is a so-called "small L" Liberal).
Indeed, as Abbott noted in a recent interview: ''[Ted's] style and my style are obviously a bit different … but I get on with him extremely well.''
This is clearly a good thing given Abbott has visited Victoria 84 times since becoming Opposition Leader, in a bid to gain traction in Julia Gillard's home state. Victoria, after all, has traditionally been the federal Coalition's weakest link, and Abbott still remains deeply unpopular with many voters.
But this could change at the September 14 election, where Labor is now fighting for its political life. The conventional wisdom used to be that federal elections were generally won or lost in western Sydney. Thanks to the knife-edge result of 2010, this year's poll will be as much of a contest in Victoria as anywhere else.
The precarious nature of the hung Parliament means Labor needs to pick up seats if it's to have any chance of retaining office. And in Victoria alone - a typically progressive state - it could lose at least three: Corangamite (held by 0.3%); Deakin (0.6%) and La Trobe (1.7%). Safer Labor electorates such as Chisholm (5.8%) and Bruce (7.7%) are also in Liberal sights.
Which might explain why Abbott, a proud New South Welshman, comes to Melbourne so regularly and has started referring to it as his ''second home''.
In the past year, he's promised $1.5 billion to kick-start the East West road; more CCTV cameras in crime hot spots; and a so-called Landcare "Green Army" to clean up the Yarra and Port Phillip Bay.
But with the federal election in seven months - and a state election due 14 months after that - some Spring Street strategists are starting to wonder: could an Abbott victory help or hinder the Baillieu government?
It's a worthwhile question - after all, Baillieu could take all the help he can get. As Jeff Kennett, a close friend of the Premier, said last week, the Coalition government were not good communicators, and the Premier himself was not comfortable with the media. ''It comes to a broader point and that is the ability of the government to sell its message. I think that is far from good enough.''
One school of thought argues an Abbott government would provide obvious benefits for Victoria: a better relationship with Canberra; less of the "blame game" in funding; and a clear commitment to finally get cracking on Baillieu's top infrastructure priority, the East-West. But some might argue that an Abbott government could be exactly what state Labor leader Daniel Andrews needs ahead of the 2014 Victorian election.
First, a Coalition victory would clear the oxygen for the state opposition to gain some much-needed traction - without the spectre of Gillard and federal Labor's damaged brand.
Second, if a conservative government is elected federally, some swinging voters might turn to Labor at the state election to restore balance. As one ALP hardhead put it: "Two levels of a Liberal government? Victorians won't want that for too long."
Third is the flow-on effect of future federal funding cuts. Among other things, Abbott has vowed to axe the mining tax, scrap the carbon tax, and reduce the public service. He's also vowed to to find further savings and efficiencies, just as Baillieu did after coming to office. The great unknown is the impact cuts could have on Victoria - according to Baillieu, we're already being robbed of our fair share.
There's also another factor: the stark contrast between Abbott's and Baillieu's world views.
Baillieu came to office as a "moderate" Liberal: for instance, he's voted in favour of abortion reform and stem cell research, and has declared refugees are as ''Australian as Simpson and his donkey" and ought to be embraced. Abbott is a conservative from the party's Right, who has limited women's access to the abortion pill RU486 and whose mantra on asylum seekers- "stop the boats'' - is clearly less welcoming.
If Labor sought to exploit these philosophical differences as part of its political strategy, it could make things a little uncomfortable for the Premier in an election year.
Either way, it's going to be an interesting contest. For 30 years, Labor's vote in Victoria has been consistently higher than the rest of the country. Indeed, at the last federal election, Labor secured 22 seats and more than 55 per cent of the vote after preferences. In contrast, the Coalition won 14 seats and 44.69 per cent of the vote.
But politics is a numbers game - and the numbers suggest the tide is turning. The question is, will this work in Baillieu's favour, or will he get caught in a rip?
Farrah Tomazin is state politics editor.
Twitter: @farrahtomazin
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